The Big Flip: From a Record Short to a Record Long in Soybean Meal

In July 2025, large speculators held the biggest bet against soybean meal ever recorded. Their net short reached 86,811 contracts. The CFTC’s data for this market goes back to 1986, and no week before had seen a larger short.

In the latest report, the same group holds the opposite record. As of October 6, large speculators are net long 222,657 contracts, the largest long in forty years of data. Between the two extremes lies a swing of more than 300,000 contracts in fifteen months.

Five Records in Six Weeks

The path was not a straight line. Speculators turned net long in November 2025 and slipped back into a small short around the turn of the year. By May, they had built a long of about 160,000 contracts. In June, they sold most of it again, down to 48,686 contracts at the end of the month.

Then came the run. Since the end of June, the long has grown by about 174,000 contracts. The old record of 176,990 contracts, set in March 2023, fell on September 1. Four more records followed, the latest on October 6.

New Buying, Not Short Covering

The Disaggregated report shows who is behind the move. Money managers, the hedge funds and trading advisers that the CFTC groups as managed money, hold 213,268 long contracts. Against them stand only 7,967 shorts.

For every contract money managers are short, they now hold almost 27 long.

Fifteen months ago, the picture was reversed: 181,617 shorts against 55,745 longs. Some of the turn was short covering, but not the recent part. Since late August, money managers added about 84,000 longs and closed about 26,000 shorts. Most of the latest move is new buying.

The Other Side of the Trade

Every long in futures has a short on the other side. In soybean meal, much of that side is the commercial trade: crushers, grain merchants, processors and feed users that handle the physical product.

Producers and merchants are net short 361,335 contracts, the largest short since the Disaggregated data began in 2006. Their previous record, 276,587 contracts in March 2023, came in the same week as the speculators’ old record long.

Commercial positions are mostly hedges. A crusher that sells meal futures locks in a price for meal it will produce later. A record commercial short means the physical trade is selling forward into the speculators’ buying.

Soybeans Are Crowded, Too

Meal is not the only crowded corner of the soy complex. In soybeans, speculators are net long 273,896 contracts. Only five weeks in the data show a larger long: four in late 2020 and one this September.

Soybean oil tells a different story. The speculators’ long there set a record of its own in April, at 171,812 contracts. Since then, it has shrunk by about a third, to 111,279.

What the Last Two Peaks Show

A record long is not a signal that the trade is about to turn. Positioning can stay one-sided for months. The COT Index shows how stretched a trade is, but not when it ends.

The two previous peaks still give a sense of scale. In May 2018, speculators held 167,456 contracts net long. Within ten months, they were net short. In March 2023, they held the old record of 176,990. Ten months later, they were net short again. Two examples do not make a rule, but they show how far this market has swung after its past extremes.

What to Watch Next

• Money managers. Their net long dipped slightly this week, the first decline in eight weeks. The next reports show whether that is a pause.
• The commercial short. It has grown in step with the speculators’ long. Whether it keeps growing shows how much meal the physical trade is selling forward.
• Soybeans. About 8,000 more contracts would set a new record there as well.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 6, 2026. Large speculators come from the Legacy report, money managers and producers from the Disaggregated report.