Speculators Hold More Euro Shorts Than at Any Time Since 1999
Long story short: Large speculators hold more euro shorts than at any time since euro futures began trading in 1999. Their net short is the largest since January 2016. Asset managers hold a record number of shorts as well, but they are still net long.
In this story
Source: CFTC Legacy report, futures only, weekly from January 2014 to October 27, 2026.
Three weeks ago, this series described a bet on the US dollar that ran through almost every currency, with the euro at its center. The bet has grown since. As of October 27, large speculators hold 374,540 short contracts in euro futures, the most since the contract began trading in 1999.
The record is not a narrow one. Before this year, the high was 271,608 contracts in February 2020. The five largest short positions in the data are the five most recent reports.
Their net short, longs minus shorts, is 143,894 contracts. That is the largest since January 2016. Eight weeks ago, it was 24,925.
A Record Short, but Not a Record Net Short
The net short is still well below its record of 226,560 contracts from March 2015. The difference lies on the other side of the book. In March 2015, speculators held 268,269 shorts against only 41,709 longs. Today they hold 230,646 longs as well.
Speculators are in the euro on both sides and in size. The short side has grown faster.
In February, speculators held 318,704 long contracts, the most in the data. Since then, the longs have shrunk by more than a quarter and the shorts have more than doubled. A smaller long side would push the net short toward the 2015 level without a single new short.
Asset Managers Kept Selling
The dollar story ended with one question: whether asset managers would keep adding euro shorts. They did. The Traders in Financial Futures report shows them with 321,643 short contracts, up from 205,001 eight weeks ago. That is the most since this data began in 2006.
Asset managers are pension funds, insurers and other large investors that hold positions for months. They are still net long, as they have been in every week since February 2016. But at 173,249 contracts, their net long is the smallest since February 2025.
Source: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report, futures only, weekly from January 2025 to October 27, 2026.
Hedge funds, which the CFTC reports as leveraged funds, are net short 71,574 contracts, the most since March 2020.
How the Last Two Large Shorts Ended
A crowded short is not a signal that the trade is about to turn. The COT Index shows how stretched a position is, but not when it ends. The two closest cases ended at very different speeds.
Source: CFTC Legacy report, futures only, weekly from January 2014 to October 27, 2026.
In January 2016, speculators held a net short of 146,451 contracts, close to today’s. They did not turn net long until May 2017, sixteen months later. In February 2020, the net short peaked at 114,021 contracts, and the turn was fast. Three weeks later, speculators were net long. Six months later, they held the largest euro long in the data.
What to Watch Next
- The longs. Speculators still hold 230,646 long contracts. If those are sold, the net short grows even without new shorts.
- Asset managers. Their net long has shrunk by 90,004 contracts in eight weeks. They have not been net short since February 2016.
- Hedge funds. Their net short is the largest since March 2020 and still growing.
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Large speculators come from the Legacy report, asset managers and hedge funds from the Traders in Financial Futures report.
