Trading equity curve simulator
Simulate how win rate, average win and risk per trade can shape possible account paths and drawdowns. This is a scenario model, not a forecast.
Inputs
Result
Your simulated paths will appear here
Enter the five core assumptions, then run the simulation to compare possible equity paths and drawdowns.
Simulation assumptions
Each simulated trade is either a win or a loss, using the same win rate throughout. Winning trades add the average win minus costs; losing trades subtract the average loss plus costs. Average loss defaults to 1R when left blank. Risk is recalculated as a percentage of the current balance after every trade.
The simulated paths do not model gaps, changing market conditions, partial exits, contract rounding, taxes, margin events or trader behavior.
One expectancy, many possible paths
A positive average does not remove losing streaks or drawdowns. By default, the simulator generates 25 possible trade sequences from the same win rate, average win and risk settings. Each sequence appears as a separate line in the chart.
What the model assumes
Win rate, average win, entered average loss and trading cost, and percentage risk stay constant. Average loss defaults to 1R. Real strategies can change across market conditions.
How to read the chart
Each light line is one simulation. The darker line shows the average balance across all simulations at each trade. Hover a line to inspect its balance. The paths are scenarios, not forecasts or confidence intervals.
Method and limits
Each trade is modeled as an independent win or loss using the binomial model described by the NIST binomial model. The simulation does not include changing market conditions, gaps, variable fills, taxes or trader behavior. First validate the expectancy assumptions.
A simulation is only as good as its inputs.
Calculate a strategy's expectancy first, or analyze your actual trade history — every trading tool lives on one page.