Half a Million Contracts in Seven Months: The Great Sugar Turn

In early March, hedge funds held the largest sugar short on record. The CFTC reports them together with commodity trading advisers as money managers. On March 3, that group was net short 238,217 contracts, the most since its data began in 2006.

As of October 20, the same group is net long 264,530 contracts. In 33 weeks, its position swung by 502,747 contracts. No earlier turn in the data was that large in less than a year.

The Shorts Went First

The Disaggregated report shows how the turn was made. Since March 3, money managers closed 290,528 short contracts and added 212,219 longs. A little more than half of the swing came from shorts that were bought back.

The decisive week came in August. Between August 4 and August 11, the net position jumped by 130,772 contracts and turned long. Since then, the long has kept growing, with only short pauses.

The bet against sugar was not only closed. It was replaced by one of the largest bets on sugar in the data.

Their longs now total 355,665 contracts, the most since 2006. That side has set a new record four times since September 1. Among money managers, 87 hold longs and only 25 hold shorts.

A Record for Large Speculators Too

The Legacy report reaches back to 1986 and counts all large speculators together. Their sugar longs stand at 422,027 contracts, the most in forty years of data. The old record of 369,812 contracts dated from August 2016.

The same group held the opposite record earlier this year. On February 17, large speculators were net short 253,592 contracts, the biggest sugar short since 1986.

The Producers on the Other Side

Every long has a short on the other side. In sugar, much of that side belongs to the commercial trade: mills, refiners, merchants and growers who hedge future production. The Disaggregated report counts them as producers and merchants.

Their net short stands at 391,175 contracts, the largest since November 2016. On March 3, the same group was net long 52,376. As the speculators turned, the commercial trade moved almost as far the other way.

Close to a Ceiling That Has Held Since 2016

A large long is not a signal that buying will continue or stop. Positioning can stay large for months, and the COT Index shows how stretched a trade is, not when it ends. The history of this position still gives a sense of scale.

Money managers have reached this level three times before. Their longs peaked at 268,301 contracts in October 2016, at 261,897 in October 2020 and at 268,336 in August 2021, the record. Today they are 3,806 contracts short of it.

After the peaks of 2016 and 2021, the long was about 80% smaller six months later. After 2020, it shrank by a quarter within two months and then grew back. Three cases do not make a rule, but they show where this trade has stalled before.

The last swing of a similar size took much longer. From a record short in September 2019 to the peak of August 2021, money managers turned 500,223 contracts in almost two years. This time, it took seven months.

What to Watch Next

• The record. The net long is 3,806 contracts below the peak of August 2021. One more week of buying would set a new record.
• The shorts. At 91,135 contracts, money managers hold the fewest shorts since April 2025. Rising shorts would be the first sign of the trade turning.
• Producers and merchants. Their short is the mirror image of the speculators’ long. A shrinking short would show the commercial trade buying back hedges.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Money managers and producers come from the Disaggregated report, large speculators from the Legacy report.