Asset Managers Turn Against the Aussie, the Kiwi and the Peso
Long story short: Asset managers hold record shorts in the Australian dollar and the Mexican peso, a market they held long for most of two decades. Large speculators hold more New Zealand dollar shorts than ever. Hedge funds stand on the other side.
Watch this storyLong Story Short, Episode 3 · from 7:58on YouTubeSource: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report, futures only, weekly from January 7, 2025 to October 20, 2026.
Asset managers have turned hard against the Australian dollar. These are pension funds, insurers, mutual funds and other institutional investors. As of October 20, they were net short 128,739 contracts, the most since the Traders in Financial Futures data began in 2006.
It is their second record in a row. On September 1, their net short was 30,467 contracts. In seven weeks, it has become more than four times larger.
The broader group of large speculators shows the same turn. In the Legacy report, they are net short 127,292 contracts, their largest Aussie short since the data began in 1987. Last week’s record of 117,299 contracts has already been broken.
The Kiwi Follows
The New Zealand dollar is moving the same way. Large speculators hold 79,874 short contracts, more than at any time since the data began in 1999. Their net short of 58,149 contracts is close to the record of 65,189 they set in July.
Four weeks ago, the net short was 11,380 contracts. It has grown fivefold since then. Asset managers added 37,828 contracts to their own short over the same four weeks.
Asset Managers Leave the Peso
The sharpest turn came in the Mexican peso. For most of the past two decades, asset managers have been net long the peso. They were net short in only 14 weeks since 2006, and the last three reports are three of them.
Source: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report, futures only, weekly from January 2016 to October 20, 2026.
As of October 20, asset managers are net short 24,064 peso contracts, the most in the data. Eight weeks ago, they were net long 68,590. In the last four weeks alone, they sold more than half of their longs, from 110,866 to 53,063 contracts.
Asset managers held the peso for most of two decades. In four weeks, they sold half of their longs.
Hedge Funds Take the Other Side
The trade is not one-sided. Hedge funds, which the CFTC calls leveraged funds, are net long in both markets. In the Australian dollar, they hold a net long of 52,497 contracts. In the peso, their net long is 63,814.
The two groups stand on opposite sides of the same markets. The report shows that disagreement. It cannot show which side will turn out to be right.
Where the Dollar Bet Stands
Two weeks ago, the first story in this series described a broad bet on the US dollar. The COT Index shows that it has grown since then.
- Australian dollar0
- Euro1
- New Zealand dollar7
- British pound11
- Mexican peso13
- Canadian dollar52
- Swiss franc68
- Japanese yen70
Source: CFTC Legacy report, futures only, positions as of October 20, 2026.
The euro is the largest part of that bet. Large speculators hold 360,945 short euro contracts, more than at any time since euro futures began in 1999. Their net short of 134,524 contracts is the largest since January 2016.
The pound moved the other way in the latest week. Large speculators bought back 26,544 contracts of their short. The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are not part of the trade at all.
What to Watch Next
- The Aussie record. Large speculators and asset managers have set new records two weeks in a row.
- The peso. Large speculators in the Legacy report are still net long 17,023 contracts, down from 75,167 four weeks ago. A net short would bring them in line with the asset managers.
- The hedge funds. Whether they keep their longs in the Aussie and the peso, the main counterweight to the asset managers.
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Asset managers and hedge funds come from the Traders in Financial Futures report, large speculators and the COT Index from the Legacy report.
