A Record Bet Against the Australian Dollar, and the Pound Is Close Behind

Last week’s story described a bet on the US dollar that ran through almost every currency. In the latest report, that bet has set a record. As of October 13, large speculators are net short 117,299 Australian dollar contracts. No week since the CFTC’s data for this market began in 1987 has seen a larger short.

The old record of 107,538 contracts dated from March 2024. Four weeks ago, the short stood at 38,906 contracts. It has tripled since and grew in each of those four weeks.

The turn came quickly. In May, the same group was net long 85,644 contracts, its largest long since January 2013. In five months, the position swung by about 203,000 contracts.

Asset Managers Hold the Short

The Traders in Financial Futures report shows who carries the record. Most of it sits with asset managers: pension funds, insurers and other large investors that hold positions for months. They are net short 115,920 contracts, their largest short since the TFF data began in 2006. Their short contracts alone add up to 200,252, also a record.

Since mid-September, asset managers added about 59,000 short contracts. Hedge funds did not follow. The CFTC reports them as leveraged funds, and they are net long 50,591 contracts. Their last net short dates from December 2025.

The record is an asset manager trade. Hedge funds are on the other side.

Much of the other side also fell to the dealers, mostly large banks. They went from a net short of 38,303 contracts in mid-September to a net long of 48,901.

The Pound and the Euro Are Near Their Own Extremes

The Australian dollar is the only currency at a record, but it is not alone at the edge. In the British pound, large speculators are net short 106,964 contracts. Their record short, set in March 2017, was 107,844. The gap is 880 contracts.

Four weeks ago, the pound short was 58,715 contracts. Asset managers drove that move as well. They added about 57,000 contracts to their net short.

The euro short has grown even faster. Large speculators are net short 137,573 contracts, five times the 26,993 of mid-September. That is the largest euro short since January 2016. A week earlier, it was the largest since February 2020. Their 360,502 short contracts are the most since euro futures began trading in 1999.

What the Last Two Big Shorts Show

A record short is not a signal that the trade is about to turn. Positioning can stay one-sided for months. The COT Index shows how stretched a trade is, but not when it ends.

This market has still unwound large shorts quickly before. After the old record of March 2024, the short shrank for four months, and in July 2024 large speculators were briefly net long. In August 2025, they held a short of 100,590 contracts. Three weeks later, it had almost halved. Two examples do not make a rule, but they show how fast this position has moved.

What to Watch Next

• The pound. 880 more short contracts would set a record there as well.
• Hedge funds in the Australian dollar. They are the one large group still on the long side. A turn to a net short would put them on the same side as the asset managers.
• Asset managers in the euro. They are still net long 199,918 contracts, about 52,000 fewer than in mid-September. They have not been net short the euro since February 2016.

The euro market page in COT Screener is free and shows how the euro short built up, week by week.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Large speculators come from the Legacy report; asset managers, hedge funds and dealers from the Traders in Financial Futures report.