Twice the Old Record: The Biggest Bet Against Lean Hogs in the Data
Long story short: Large speculators hold the biggest lean hog short since the data began in 1996, more than twice the record that stood until June. A year ago, they held the biggest long. The producers who hedge on the other side are less short than at any time since 2006.
In this story
Watch this storyLong Story Short, Episode 2 · from 7:03on YouTubeSource: CFTC Legacy report, futures only, weekly from January 2022 to October 13, 2026.
Until June, the largest bet that large speculators had ever placed against lean hogs was a net short of 36,114 contracts, set in May 2023. As of October 13, they are net short 81,787 contracts, more than twice that old record. The CFTC’s data for this market goes back to 1996.
The record has fallen eleven times since June 2, most recently in each of the past three reports.
A Year Ago, the Opposite Record
Twelve months ago, the same group held the largest long in the data. On September 30, 2025, large speculators were net long 103,357 contracts. Since then, their position has swung by about 185,000 contracts.
The turn was gradual at first. The long shrank through the autumn of 2025, recovered over the winter and was gone by May. Large speculators turned net short on May 12 and have stayed net short since.
Hedge Funds Switched Sides
The Disaggregated report shows the same turn among money managers. The CFTC reports hedge funds and commodity trading advisers together under that name. A year ago, money managers held 158,062 long contracts against 13,108 shorts. Today, they hold 68,181 longs and 116,798 shorts.
Those shorts are the most since the data on the group began in 2006, well above the old high of 75,474 from 2018. The head count turned as well. In September 2025, 110 money managers were long and 20 were short. As of October 13, 54 are long and 77 are short.
A year ago, long holders outnumbered short sellers more than five to one. Now the short sellers are the majority.
Source: CFTC Disaggregated report, futures only, weekly from January 2025 to October 13, 2026.
The Hedgers Have Stepped Back
A year ago, the other side of the speculators’ record long belonged mostly to the hog trade. The Disaggregated report groups hog farms, meatpackers and processors as producers and merchants. In September 2025, they were net short 147,961 contracts, the largest short since 2006.
Their positions are mostly hedges. A hog producer that sells futures locks in a price for animals it will bring to market months later. A year on, producers and merchants have cut their short contracts by 79%, from 172,745 to 36,448. Their net short is down to 1,389 contracts, the smallest since 2006. In no week of the data have they been net long.
Much of the long side now sits with swap dealers, the banks behind commodity index and swap products. Their net long of 80,263 contracts is the largest since July 2018.
What May 2023 Shows
A record short is not a signal that the trade is about to turn. Positioning can stay one-sided for months, and this short has grown for five. The COT Index shows how stretched a trade is, but not when it ends.
The old record still gives a sense of scale. Six weeks after the short of May 2023, large speculators had closed almost 90% of it. One example does not make a rule, and today’s short is more than twice as large.
What to Watch Next
- Money managers. Their shorts set a record this week. Whether they keep adding shows if the bet is still growing.
- Producers and merchants. At 1,389 contracts, their net short is close to zero. A net long would be a first in the data.
- Live cattle. Large speculators are still net long there, but their COT Index stands at 3, close to the shortest in three years.
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Large speculators come from the Legacy report; money managers, producers and swap dealers from the Disaggregated report.
