Covered, Not Convinced: How Speculators Turned Long the Nasdaq
Long story short: Speculators hold their biggest Nasdaq 100 long since June 2017, but they did not buy their way there. They closed three quarters of their shorts in eight weeks, and in the S&P 500 they added shorts at the same time.
Source: CFTC Legacy report, futures only, weekly from January 2024 to October 6, 2026.
In the latest COT report, large speculators are net long 58,123 Nasdaq 100 contracts. That is their biggest long since June 2017. The COT Index, which compares a position with the past three years, stands at 100.
The long side tells a different story. Speculators hold 86,745 long contracts, almost exactly as many as four weeks ago. What changed is the short side.
A Long Built by Closing Shorts
In early August, speculators held 109,630 Nasdaq shorts, more than at any time since October 2020. Their net position was a short of 39,302 contracts.
Eight weeks later, three quarters of those shorts are gone. Speculators closed about 81,000 short contracts and added only about 16,000 longs. Their remaining 28,622 shorts are the fewest since November 2016.
Speculators did not buy the Nasdaq. They stopped betting against it.
Hedge Funds Are Still Net Short
The Traders in Financial Futures report splits the market into finer groups, and it shows how far the turn has gone. Hedge funds, which the CFTC calls leveraged funds, cut their shorts from 123,674 to 70,561 contracts in eight weeks. They are still net short 19,212 contracts. Their last net long dates from November 2025.
Asset managers hold a net long of 73,798 contracts, about 12,000 more than in early August. The other side of the move fell to the dealers, mostly large banks. They went from a small net long in early August to a net short of 72,562 contracts.
The S&P 500 Moves the Other Way
The Nasdaq long does not extend to the rest of the stock market. In the same eight weeks, speculators went from a net long of 11,280 S&P 500 contracts to a net short of 154,070. They added about 86,000 shorts there while they closed about 81,000 in the Nasdaq.
The two contracts differ in size, so the counts do not cancel out, but the directions are opposite. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies sits near the short end as well. Only the Dow is in between.
- Nasdaq 100100
- Dow Jones76
- S&P 50024
- Russell 20006
Source: CFTC, positions as of October 6, 2026.
The Last Time They Were This Long
A crowded position is not a signal that it will reverse. The COT Index shows how stretched a trade is, but not when it ends.
The last long of this size still offers a sense of scale. In June 2017, speculators held a Nasdaq long of 101,584 contracts. Four weeks later, it was down to 30,730. One example does not make a rule, but it shows how quickly this position has moved before.
What to Watch Next
- New longs. With shorts at their lowest since 2016, there is little left to cover. A larger net long from here would have to come from new buying.
- Hedge funds. A move to a net long would be their first since November 2025.
- The S&P 500. Whether speculators keep adding shorts there while their Nasdaq shorts are almost gone.
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only, positions as of Tuesday, October 6, 2026. Large speculators come from the Legacy report; hedge funds, asset managers and dealers from the Traders in Financial Futures report.