Commitments of Traders
COT extremes near 0 and 100, explained
A displayed COT Index of 90 places the selected net position approximately 90% of the way from its window low to its window high. The useful question is how that upper-range reading developed and whether it persists.
Start with the range
The CFTC publishes positions, while COT Screener calculates the COT Index from a selected net-position series. The formula and lookback choices belong in the index guide; here the focus is what happens when a reading stays near one end of its range.
On the positioning board, displayed readings of 80 and above enter the upper-range band, while readings of 20 and below enter the lower-range band. These are COT Screener conventions. A displayed score is rounded to a whole number, so 90 describes an approximate location unless the unrounded value is known.
What the reading means
An upper-range reading places the selected net-position series near the high end of its lookback range; a lower-range reading places it near the low end. Descriptions such as “crowded” add an interpretation. The index itself contains positioning data; trader motives, price and future returns are separate.
Why an extreme can persist
A rolling index can remain near 100 across several reports when each new net position stays close to the window maximum. The unrounded index reaches exactly 100 when the latest value matches that maximum, whether by repeating it or setting a new high. A displayed 100 can also result from rounding a value just below the maximum.
Read the weekly change beneath the score
The same high score can develop through different changes in the raw columns. A higher net position may come from more longs, fewer shorts or both. A lower net position may come from fewer longs, more shorts or both. Read the long and short change columns before summarizing the move as a change in net positioning.
Those changes compare two aggregate report dates. They show which published totals moved, while individual transactions and motives remain outside the public report. This distinction matters most when an upper- or lower-range score persists but its underlying long and short mix starts to change.
Compare the score with price
Compare the score with price at the report’s Tuesday as-of date. An upper-range reading can appear while price is rising, falling or moving sideways. Positioning may confirm or diverge from a price trend, but neither relationship predicts the next move by itself.
Open interest provides another layer by showing whether the market’s outstanding contracts expanded or contracted. The shorter and longer COT Index windows answer a separate question: recent range versus broader history. Their construction is covered in the COT Index guide.
See the latest COT Index extremes
A free account opens the positioning board, which flags every market at or beyond the thresholds. The legend at the top counts them, and the corresponding rows are highlighted. Open a public market such as Gold, WTI Crude Oil or Euro FX to study an upper- or lower-range reading in context.
Official data sources
COT Screener derives its headline extreme readings from non-commercial net positions in the CFTC’s Legacy Futures Only dataset. Report-specific views use the primary positioning category shown for that report. The CFTC’s explanatory notes define the reported position fields and week-to-week changes. The 80/20 range labels are conventions used by COT Screener.
Common questions
Is a COT Index of 100 a sell signal?
No. An unrounded value of 100 means the latest net position equals the highest value in the selected lookback window. A displayed 100 may also be a value just below 100 rounded to a whole number. Neither case is a price forecast.
How long do COT extremes last?
There is no fixed duration. The index remains high while the latest net position stays close to the rolling-window maximum, which can continue across several reports. Price may follow a different path during the same period.
What counts as a COT extreme?
On COT Screener’s positioning board, a displayed COT Index reading of 80 and above is an upper-range extreme; 20 and below is a lower-range extreme. Each band covers one fifth of the min–max span, not one fifth of all observations.
Should I trade against a COT extreme?
The index is descriptive rather than a trading rule. Compare the extreme with weekly position changes, open interest and price before deciding whether it matters for your setup.
